Breaking down the race for The Chase
Here's the dichotomy surrounding Sunday's Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis.
Despite the hype, despite the $452,861 winner's kitty from 2006 and despite the huge crowd that crams the speedway, the bottom line is Sunday's race pays no more in points than the 35 other Nextel Cup events.
And in the end, it's the points that matter most heading down the stretch run to the sport's final 10-race championship playoff that begins Sept. 16 at New Hampshire and concludes Nov. 18 at Homestead.
Seven races -- the Brickyard, Pocono, Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, California and Richmond -- remain to be run before the playoff and it appears the drivers in the top 12 in points are in pretty good shape when it comes to making the cut for the championship run.
That being said, there are at least three shoes who could still make a run at being included and a host of others too numerous to mention, who while not contending, could surely tilt the outcome one way or another.
Before we break down the status of the top 12 drivers -- and those in range -- and handicap their title chances, a message from the sponsor:
At the endof the Sept. 8 Richmond race, the top 12 drivers will have their points re-set at 5,000, making regular-season points irrelevant. But each driver will receive 10 bonus points for each regular-season victory, making each very valuable.
Right now, Hendrick Motorsports drivers Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson are the only ones with multiple victories (four each) and will start tied at 5,040. That's a bonus for Johnson, who heads into Indianapolis seventh in points, but benefits from making the most of the rules.
Also, championship odds are based on performance under pressure and potential, not on regular-season performance.
# 1. Jeff Gordon. Playoff status: In. Thanks to sterling early-season run but then faces the crapshoot of the playoff as he attempts to win title No. 5. Championship odds: 2-1.
# 2.Denny Hamlin. Playoff status: In. Championship odds: 3-1. Hamlin might be just a sophomore but there's been no slump. He and his team, if they stay on the same page, are capable of winning it all.
# 3. Matt Kenseth. Playoff status: In. Championship odds: 2.5-1. Already a champion (2003), Kenseth is as determined, as skilled and as cold-blooded as they come. Plus, his team is top-notch.
# 4. Jeff Burton. Playoff status: In. Championship odds: 12-1. Has to prove last year's disappointing playoff performance, where he and his team fell from first to fifth in one race and ended up seventh, was an abberation.
# 5. Carl Edwards. Playoff status: In. Championship odds: 19-1. The smiling, successful Edwards is back in the picture after a nightmarish 2006 but can he sustain the momentum?
# 6. Tony Stewart. Playoff status: In. Championship odds: 3-1. It's yours to win or lose Tony. If 2005, when Tony Stewart won five of seven races and vaulted from 10th in points following the season's 14th race (Pocono) to the lead after the 21st race (Indianapolis) is any indication, good Tony, fresh off a victory at Chicago could be poised for an encore. Then again, bad Tony could emerge and ruin everything. Stay tuned.
# 7. Johnson. Playoff status: In. Championship odds: 7-1. This has been a maddeningly inconsistent season for Johnson and his bunch and having crew chief Chad Knaus on suspension -- again -- isn't helping. That being said, Johnson's team, like Tony Stewart's, has shown it can rebound when things look the bleakest.
# 8. Kevin Harvick. Playoff status: In. Championship odds: 15-1. Harvick won the Daytona 500 and won the NASCAR Nextel All-Star Challenge, but in between he's been up and down, and down doesn't cut it.
# 9. Kyle Busch. Playoff status: Basically in. Championship odds: 30-1. Oh, the potential. Oh, the possibilities. Oh, the reality. Some day this kid could rule the world but it's not someday quite yet.
# 10. Clint Bowyer. Playoff status: In barring a collapse. Championship odds: 40-1. Anything is possible but not this season.
# 11. Martin Truex Jr. Playoff status: See Bowyer. Championship odds: 45-1. Not quite yet kid.
# 12. Dale Earnhardt Jr. Playoff status: No margin for error since he is only 30 points ahead of 13th-place Ryan Newman. Championship odds: 30-1. He's got to make the playoff. But if he does he could make things interesting.
On the outside looking in:
# 13. Newman. Status: In position to make a serious run after missing last year's playoff but he must get something out of his Penske Dodge that has been at a premium: consistent excellence.
# 14. Kurt Busch. Status: Not out of it since he trails teammate Newman by only 47 and Earnhardt by 77. He needs a victory or two and consistent finishes.
# 15. Jamie McMurray. Status: Trails Busch by 34 and Earnhardt by 111. The gap to Earnhardt could be bridged if he falters and McMurray rallies. But McMurray can't afford any more poor finishes, see Chicago.
# 16. Greg Biffle. Status: McMurray's Roush Racing teammate is a long shot at best as he trails Earnhardt by 185 and if he misses the playoff it will continue the head-slapping slide for a driver who was the championship runner-up in 2005.
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