Odds are against Earnhardt

¦With one race remaining before the start of NASCAR's 10-race Chase for the Championship, the field is nearly complete.

Under the playoff system, 12 drivers -- an increase of two from the previous format -- qualify for the Chase that determines the champion.

Eight spots are locked up as the series heads to Richmond (Va.) International Raceway for some old-school, short-track racing under the lights Saturday night.

The ninth and 10th drivers -- Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex Jr. -- are virtual locks as they simply must start the race to qualify.

That leaves three drivers -- Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick and Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- vying for two spots.

For Earnhardt, the odds are not great.

Busch needs only to finish 36th or better to clinch a spot. Kevin Harvick needs only to finish 32nd or better.

Here's a look at some of the issues entering the final race before the Chase:

What must Junior do?

There are some unlikely scenarios, but the point is, they are out there:

# Earnhardt must finish no lower than fifth and lead the most laps, and Kevin Harvick must finish last (43rd).

# Earnhardt can finish fourth, lead one lap, or finish third and lead no laps, as long as Kevin Harvick finishes last.

# If Earnhardt wins at Richmond -- he has three victories at the three-quarter-mile track -- and leads the most laps, and Kevin Harvick finishes 33rd or worse or Kurt Busch finishes 37th or worse, he will make the Chase.

# If Earnhardt wins but doesn't lead the most laps, he will need Kevin Harvick to finish 34th or worse or Busch to finish 39th or worse.

Bad news for Earnhardt, though: Kevin Harvick is the defending champion of this race and in 13 career Cup starts at Richmond, has seven top-10 finishes, including four top-fives.

Worthwhile wins

With the tweaking of the Chase format, there is a new level of importance for victories.

Drivers will be seeded based on 2007 victories, with ties broken by a comparison of the drivers' best finishes.

Defending Cup champion Jimmie Johnson is sixth in points, but because he has five victories, the most of any driver, he would be the top seed. That is unless Hendrick teammate Jeff Gordon , currently the series points leader, wins at Richmond.

Jeff Gordon, the most consistent driver this season with 20 top-10s, also would have five victories and would take the top seed.

Great start

Bowyer and Truex must love the fact all they have to do to make the Chase is start Saturday's race.

"For RCR (Richard Childress Racing) to be in pretty good position to have all three cars in the Chase is very gratifying," Truex said. "At the same time, it's all about winning races, and we need to get that done, too."

Jeff Burton is the third RCR driver that will be in the Chase. Jeff Burton and Truex have one win, Bowyer is winless.

It's good for Truex that he only needs to start Saturday's race, because he has struggled at Richmond. In three starts there, he has finished 41st, 40th and 28th.

Changing times

Tony Stewart , a two-time series champion, is the only active driver to have won a championship under the old format and also under the Chase format.

Which was tougher to win?

"It's comparing apples and oranges," Tony Stewart said. "It was two different deals. Back in 2002, we only had to worry about Mark Martin at the end of the season. With the second one in 2005, we had to worry about four or five people until the last night."

Tomorrow's news

Saturday's race will be the 11th of 16 Car of Tomorrow events this season. The series will move full-time to what NASCAR calls the "next-generation vehicle" next season.

Hendrick Motorsports drivers Jeff Gordon, Johnson, Kyle Busch and Casey Mears seem to have the edge in the COT. The team has won five of the 10 races, with Jeff Gordon and Johnson each winning two and Busch winning one.

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